فاجأ المرشد الأعلى الإيراني، علي خامنئي، مجموعة الدول الست بإعلان رفضه الموافقة على التفتيش الدولي للمواقع العسكرية في بلاده. وقال في كلمة، أذيعت يوم الثلثاء الماضي، إن الولايات المتحدة تريد تدمير الصناعة النووية الإيرانية في وقت تحاول طهران إبرام اتفاق نهائي في شأن أنشطة ذرية بحلول الثلاثين من هذا الشهر، أي يوم الثلثاء المقبل.
والثابت أن خامنئي يراهن على عنصر المماطلة لاعتقاده بأن مجموعة الدول الست ستلجأ إلى اللين والتساهل في آخر الأمر.
ويبدو أن الولايات المتحدة وشركاءها الأوروبيين بحاجة إلى أجوبة طهران على أسئلة وكالة الطاقة الذرية الدولية، إضافة إلى الأمور المتعلقة بالسلاح النووي. وربما توقع المرشد الأعلى أن تكتفي هذه الدول بإعلانه المكرر وقوله إن تصنيع القنبلة النووية أمر مخالف للتعاليم الإسلامية.
ولكن الوقائع الراهنة تشير إلى عكس ذلك بدليل أن إيران بدأت برنامجها النووي عام 2003. وهي ترفض السماح لمفتشي وكالة الطاقة الدولية بزيارة مصانعها، أو مقابلة علماء ساهموا في برنامج الطاقة بينهم محسن فخري زادة وسيد عباس شاهمرادي.
وترى الدول المعنية بأمن المنطقة أن إيران تطمح إلى امتلاك السلاح النووي بهدف الحفاظ على مكاسبها السياسية وحماية حلفائها المنتشرين في العالم العربي («حزب الله» في لبنان والحوثيين في اليمن والشيعة في العراق والعلويين في سورية).
وعندما تحدث مؤسس الجمهورية الإسلامية آية الله الخميني عن ضرورة تصدير الثورة إلى الخارج إنما كان يهدد دول الجوار بما فيها العراق والبحرين والإمارات العربية المتحدة. ولقد حظي أبناء القضية الفلسطينية باستثناء مذهبي لم تلبث أن استفادت منه «حماس» المناضِلة أكثر من «فتح» المهادِنة.
مع دنو موعد إبرام الاتفاق النهائي بين إيران ومجموعة الدول الست، قامت طهران بإحداث نقلة سياسية مهمة قادتها إلى دعم عدوها السابق «طالبان» في أفغانستان. كما قادتها أيضاً إلى تأييد دعوة الاستيلاء على الحكم في الصومال بواسطة جماعة «حركة الشباب المجاهدين».
والملاحظ في هذا السياق أن «القاعدة» كانت تركز في أفغانستان والصومال على توسيع رقعة نفوذها بغرض إسقاط النظامَيْن في بلدين يعتبران من أكثر البلدان الإسلامية السنيّة سلفية وتزمتاً.
ففي الوضع الأفغاني، يمثل استرداد حركة «طالبان» لسلطتها السابقة إخفاقاً محلياً ودولياً لكل المساعي الرامية إلى تثبيت نظام المؤسسات والاستقرار السياسي. وبدلاً من أن يعود عسكر باكستان إلى توجيه مسار «طالبان»، فان الدعم الإيراني حالياً يمهد لإضعاف نفوذ باكستان والولايات المتحدة، وهذا ما تتطلبه طهران من جارة سبق وأربكتها عدة سنوات.
أما بالنسبة إلى تغيير الوضع القائم في الصومال، فان إيران تستفيد استراتيجياً ومادياً وعسكرياً بطريقة غير مسبوقة.
ومن المناسب التذكير بأن «القاعدة»، التي استغلت الفوضى المستشرية بعد سقوط نظام سياد بري، كانت تقلد عمليات طرد الأميركيين والفرنسيين بواسطة عماد مغنية.
ففي آخر عهد الرئيس جورج بوش الأب، أمر بإرسال 27 ألف جندي من المارينز إلى الصومال ضمن مهمة عُرِفَت باسم «إعادة الأمل». وكان ذلك بهدف التدخل السريع (خريف 1992) لوقف الحرب الدائرة بين الفصائل الصومالية، وتأمين وصول المساعدات للذين يتضورون جوعاً بسبب الحرب الأهلية.
بعد انقضاء فترة قصيرة، اندلعت حرب المفخخات بين الجنود الأميركيين والميليشيات الصومالية المسلحة بقيادة الجنرال عيديد. واستمرت تلك الحرب الشرسة إلى حين أسقطت الميليشيات مروحيتَيْن من طراز «بلاك هوك» قرب فندق «اولمبيك» في مقديشو.
ويصور الفيلم الوثائقي الذي أنتِج لتسجيل وقائع ذلك الحادث الدموي، عشرات الجنود الأميركيين الذين «يسحلهم» أفراد الميليشيات على قارعة الطريق. وكان من نتيجة العراك الذي تبنته «القاعدة» أن انسحبت القوات الأميركية بطريقة مذلة ومهينة.
في خريف 2008 قتل الجيش النظامي الصومالي زعيم «حركة الشباب المجاهدين» آدم حاشي عيرو. واستغل أيمن الظواهري ذلك الحادث ليوجه كلمة متلفزة إلى الشعب الصومالي قال فيها: «عليكم باستنساخ التكتيكات القتالية المستخدَمَة في العراق، كالألغام واختطاف الأجانب، والقاذفات الأرضية، والعمليات الاستشهادية».
وتشير الحركات المرتبطة بتاريخ الصومال أن هذه البلاد اعتبرها أيمن الظواهري الملاذ الآمن لـ «القاعدة» بسبب ضعف السلطة المركزية، وامتداد الشواطئ المطلة على إثيوبيا وكينيا وجيبوتي واليمن ضمن مساحة تتعدى 4600 كلم.
وترى القيادة العسكرية في إيران أن احتلال اليمن بواسطة الحوثيين يبقى عملاً ناقصاً ما لم يُستكمَل بضم الصومال بحيث يتم إقفال باب المندب أمام السفن المتوجهة إلى البحر الأحمر.
وقد عبَّرت مصر عن اهتمامها بمستقبل باب المندب، خصوصاً إثر الإعلان عن افتتاح قناة السويس الجديدة في 6 آب (أغسطس) المقبل. ومن المتوقع أن تقلص هذه القناة، التي حفرها الجيش المصري، فترة إبحار السفن من 22 ساعة إلى 11 ساعة، مما يجعلها أسرع قناة في العالم.
وإلى جانب القناة الجديدة، تخطط الحكومة المصرية لبناء مركز صناعي ولوجستي دولي قرب قناة السويس. ويقدر الصناعيون حجم هذا المركز بثلث حجم الاقتصاد المصري.
وتُعتبر القناة القديمة مصدراً حيوياً للعملة الصعبة، كونها تدر أكثر من خمسة بلايين دولار سنوياً. في حين يتوقع التجار أن تدر القناة الجديدة أكثر من 15 بليون دولار، لأن السفن الكبيرة تعبرها في الاتجاهين.
ويرى الرئيس المصري عبدالفتاح السيسي أن مشروع بناء المنطقة الصناعية من شأنه أن يخفف معدل البطالة، ويضخ في اقتصاد البلاد نحو مئة بليون دولار.
لهذه الأسباب وسواها تهتم الحكومة المصرية بأمن الصومال وسلامة المرور في مضيق باب المندب، باعتبارهما يمثلان بوابة الدخول والخروج إلى البحر الأحمر.
وبما أن إيران ساندت حلفاءها الحوثيين في اليمن بعد إضعاف نفوذ «القاعدة» والعمل على إنهاء دورها… فهي حالياً تركز الاهتمام على مساندة حلفائها في الصومال بعد طرد نفوذ «القاعدة». والسبب أن «الكمّاشة» الاستراتيجية التي تحلم طهران بتشغيلها بين الصومال واليمن لا تستقيم مهمتها إذا لم يكتمل هذا المسعى. ومن أجل إجهاض هذه المحاولة، قامت «القاعدة»، المسؤولة عن «حركة الشباب المجاهدين»، بعملية مفاجئة ضد وفد إماراتي راح ضحيته عدد من المرافقين والحراس.
ويبدو أن دولة الإمارات تساهم في دعم الحكومة الصومالية التي تقاتل «حركة الشباب المجاهدين»، الأمر الذي أغضب «القاعدة».
إضافة إلى موقعها الاستراتيجي المميز، فان أراضي الصومال تُعتبَر من أغنى المواقع باليورانيوم والنفط والغاز. وهذا ما قاله لي الرئيس سياد بري خلال حديث صحافي أجريته معه في مقديشو عام 1978. وكان ذلك بحضور وزير الدفاع محمد سمنتر الذي يفاخر بأنه القائد العربي المعاصر والوحيد الذي ربح حرباً، في حين أخفق القادة العرب في حرب 1967. وبعد سقوط نظام سياد بري انتقل سمنتر إلى جنيف ليعيش في المنفى.
وأذكر جيداً أثناء اللقاء مع الرئيس بري أنه هاجم الولايات المتحدة بعنف لأنها، في نظره، ستحصد الفوضى والشغب جراء دعمها لأحزاب المعارضة، واتهمها بإقامة حصار اقتصادي بغرض إفقار بلاده، والانتقام من توجهاته السياسية كونه يشتري الأسلحة من الاتحاد السوفياتي.
والمؤسف، أنه بعد سقوط سياد بري عام 1991، تحول الصومال إلى مرتع خصب لجماعة «القاعدة». كما تحول إلى ميليشيات مسلحة أعادت إلى الواجهة حكايات القراصنة وأخبار الإرهابيين.
في 23 شباط (فبراير) الماضي استضافت الحكومة البريطانية وفداً من الصومال جاء ليفاوض شركات النفط والغاز على استثمار حقول اكتشفتها شركتا «شيفرون» و»كونوكو». وقد أكدت صحيفة «الأوبزرفر» البريطانية في حينه – استناداً إلى دراسات قام بها البنك الدولي – أن آبار النفط والغاز في الصومال تختزن كميات ضخمة من الطاقة أغنى بكثير من الكميات الموجودة في اليمن. ولكن الحرب القائمة، منذ عشرين سنة، لم تسمح للشركات الكندية والصينية والبريطانية والأسترالية باستثمار تلك الحقول.
تقول الحكومة الصومالية، التي تحميها حامية مختلطة تابعة للاتحاد الأفريقي، إن إيران موجودة في البلاد من خلال أنصارها الذين يتلقون منها الدعم المادي والعسكري. ومع أن الصومال بعيد عن الحدود الإيرانية، إلا أن طهران تحاول العثور على قوة مؤثرة، مثلما عثرت في اليمن على الزيديين الذي يشكلون ما نسبته 35 في المئة من عدد السكان. ولقد نجحوا في توظيف جماعة الرئيس السابق علي عبدالله صالح بحيث أنهم تحولوا من مشكلة محلية إلى مشكلة إقليمية. كل هذا بسبب غزارة الأسلحة التي يؤمنها لهم «الحرس الثوري»… وبسبب دورهم الواعد بالهيمنة على الجزء الشمالي من اليمن.
ولكن، هل تنجح محاولات إيران في أفغانستان وغزة والصومال بطريقة تسمح للثورة الإيرانية باحتضان التنظيمات السنيّة مثل «حماس» و»طالبان»؟
الاختبارات التي أجراها الاتحاد السوفياتي سابقاً أثبتت أن العقائد العلمانية وحدها قادرة على كسب هذا الشوط، في حين أن المعتقدات الطائفية لا تمثل الجاذبية المطلوبة لجعل الصومال جرماً يدور في فلك إيران!
المصدر- الحياة
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