أخبارتقارير ودراساتمقالاتملفات

دلالات وتبعات الاعتراف باقليم جنوب غرب الصومال

صورة عبد الرحمن عبدي عبد الرحمن عبدي28 يونيو، 2014

نجحت الحكومة الصومالية بعد مخاض عسير وتردد طويل في اتخاذ قرار نهائي بشأن مصير أهم الاقاليم في جنوب وغرب الصومال المتنازع على إدارتها بين بعض القوى السياسية في البلاد. مطلع الأسبوع الماضي أعلنت الحكومة عن قبولها تشكيل إدارة مؤقتة لاقليم جنوب وغرب الصومال  الذي يشمل ثلاث مناطق ( باي وبكول وشبيلي السفلى ) خلال حفل كبير أقيم في قاعة المؤتمرات بالقصر الرئاسي بمقديشو، وبحضور الرئيس الصومالي حسن شيخ محمود ورئيس البرلمان محمد عثمان جواري وعدد من ممثلي المؤسسات الاقليمية والدولية الراعية لعملية السلام في الصومال. 

على الرغم من مجيء قرار الحكومة متأخرا وبعد حوالي أربعة اشهر من اعلان انتخاب رئيسين في مدينة بيدوة غرب البلاد يدعي كل واحد منهما انه الممثل الشرعي والوحيد لاقليم جنوب غرب الصومال الا أنه حسم الجدل بشأن مصير اقاليم استراتيجية في جنوب البلاد، واعترف ضمنا محمد عبد النور“مادير” المدعوم من قبل سياسين متنفذين في الحكومة المركزية رئيسا للاقليم.

دلالات وتبعات

يحمل هذا القرار الذي اتخذته الحكومة المركزية بشأن اعتراف إدارة اقليم جنوب غرب الصومال ( باي وبكول وشبيلي السفلى ) دلات وتبعات ينبغي الإشارة إليها بشيء من الجدية والوضوح، بالرغم مما قامت  به الحكومة من جهود ليكون القرار متماهيا مع رؤيتها الاستراتيجية  ووفق اطار المصالحة الوطنية التي يجب أن تؤسس عليها المرحلة المقبلة بغية بناء نظام فدرالي يحظي بتوافق جميع المكونات السياسية  في  الصومال.

انتخابات ٢٠١٦ 

فيما يبدو فقد غامرت الحكومة في اتخاذ قرار الاعتراف بإدارة اقليم جنوب غرب الصومال من اجل الحيلولة دون فشل محتمل في تنظيم انتخابات رئاسية وبرلمانية في البلاد نهاية عام ٢٠١٦ والتي يعتبر انجازها عنصرا مهما في تقيم أداء ونجاح فترة ما بعد المرحلة الانتقالية. ويحاول الرئيس حسن شيخ محمود في الإظهار أمام رأي العام العالمي بمظهر الرجل القوي العازم على نتفيذ استحقاقات ما بعد المرحلة الانتقالية من خلال الاسراع في اعداد قانون الانتخابات، وتعيين لجان صياغة الدستور وتشكيل الإدارات الاقليمية في البلاد التي تعد الخطوة الأولى نحو الاستعداد لاجراء انتخابات عامة في البلاد وفق معاير ديمقراطية تختلف عن السلوب القبلي الذي كان سائدا خلال السنوات الماضية.

وبناء على ذلك، فان الحكومة تريد من خلال اعترافها بإدارة اقليم جنوب غرب الصومال التي تعد الرابعة من نوعها في البلاد بعد إدارة اقليم أرض الصومال في الشمال، وبونت لاند في الشرق، وجوبا في اقصى الجنوب ان تؤكد للعالم بأنها تقطع شوطا كبيرا نحو استكمال عملية تشكيل الإدات الاقليمية علها تنجح في استعادة ثقة المجتمع الدولي التي انتابها الإهتزاز بسبب الخلافات المتكررة بين القيادات العليا للدولة والفساد الذي لا يزال يعشعش في دوائر الاقتصادية للدولة. كما ترمي الحكومة من خلال  قرار الاعتراف توجه رسالة طمأنة الي العالم بانها تسعي الي ايجاد صيغة توافقية بين مكونات الوطن لادارة المساعات الدولية قبل أيام من بدء تنفيذ المرحلة الأولي من “العقد الجديد” الذي تم الاتفاق عليه بين الصومال والمجتمع الدولي في بروكسل منتصف العام الماضي والذي بموجبه تعهدت الدول المانحة بدعم الصومال بأكثر من مليار يورو. 

العقد الجديد

 فخطوة الإعتراف لها أيضا مدلول آخر ليس أقل أهمية من قضية الانتخابات وتسعى الحكومة من خلال تلك الخطوة الي قطع الطريق أمام قرار أوروبي مفاجئ يدعو الي التخلي عن الصومال وتحويل الدعم الي دول أفريقية أخرى تشهد حالة من عدم الاستقرار نزولا عند رغبة بعض الدول المؤثرة في قرار الأوروبي كفرنسا مثلا التي تعمل حثيثا لتحويل المليار يورو التي جمعتها الدول الاوروبية لدعم الصومال الي مالي وافريقيا الوسطى وجنوب السودان. وذلك حسبما قاله عبدالرحمن عبد الشكور المستشار السياسي السابق للرئيس الصومالي حسن شيخ محمود.

ولذلك تتوقع الحكومة ان تساهم جهودها نحو تشكيل الادارات المحلية بشكل أو باخر في تعزيز ثقة المجتمع الدولي لها والافراج عن جانب من حزمة المساعدات التي تعهد بها المانحون للصومال والذين اشترطوا افراجها بتحقيق تقدم في مسار عملية التحول الديمقراطي في البلاد واستكمال بناء مؤسسات الدولة . كما ترمي الحكومة ان تضاف تلك الخطوة الي سجل انجازاتها في ظل الاستعدادات الجارية لعقد مؤتمرات دولية أخرى لمساندة الصومال في عواصم أوروبية عدة، حيث من المقرر ان يعقد نهاية هذا العام مؤتمرين دوليين لدعم الاقتصاد الصومالي واحد في لندن برعاية بريطانية وآخر في  العاصمة النرويجية أوسلو.

وفي هذا الإطار يبدو ان الرئيس حسن شيخ محمود تجرع الكأس وقبل الافكار والحلول التي طرحها بعض السياسين من بينهم مستشاره السابق عبدالرحمن عبد الشكور الذي اقترح من اجل افراج مساعدات “العقد الجديد” واستعادة ثقة المجتمع للرئيس حسن شيخ وحكومته الي جانب ضمان سير عملية التحول الديمقراطي بشكل سلس ودون عوائق ما يلي:

١-  الاسراع في تشكيل لجنة تعديل الدستور واجازة القوانين المتعلقة بالانتخابات 

٢-  القبول بفكرة تشكيل الادرات المحلية في وسط وجنوب البلاد على أساس ثلاث مناطق وهي ، اقليم جوبا واقليم جنوب غرب الصومال والمنطقة الوسطى ( هيران جلجذود وشبيلي الوسطى) في حين تكون أدارة العاصمة  الدولة المركزية مقديشو، إدارة مستقلة وذات مقام خاص.

٣- ان يوافق الرئيس حسن شيخ على اجراء تعديلات وزراية شاملة تزيح بعض المقربين منه بهدف استيعاب معارضين بارزين لنظامه.

 فيما يبدو فقد وافق الرئيس على هذه الاقتراحات وهناك مؤشرات تدل على ذلك، حيث بدأ سياسيون بارزون من بينهم رؤساء وزراء سابقين مثل علي محمد جيدي وعمر شرماركي ونورعدي العودة الي مقديشو استعدادا للعب دور كبير في العملية السياسية الجارية. وكانت ايضا الرسالة التي اراد بها الرئيس حسن سيخ توجيهها الي الرأي العام المحلي والعالمي حين قبل مشاركة حور مفتوح نظمته احدى الفضائيات الصومالية بحضور مجموعة من معارضيه الذين دعوا الي استقالته، اشارة أخرى الي وجود احتمال اجراء تعديل وزاري موسع استجابة لمطالب المعارضة.

تحذيرات من صراع قبلي

تباينت ردود أفعال اغلب القوى السياسية والعشائرية بشأن تشكيل إدراة جنوب غرب الصومال واعتراف الحكومة بها. ففيما عارض البعض هذه الخطوة واعتبرها كارثة، وجدها البعض الآخر خطوة في غاية الأهمية نحو الاتجاه الصحيح. وهو ما ينذر بصراع سياسي وعشائري محتدم.

فقد أعلنت عشائر “هوية” وعلى لسان وزراء وبرلمانين معارضتها للقرار واعتبرته بأنه قرار متسرع وطعنة مسمومة توجه للعملية السياسية برمتها من شأنها ان تشعل شرارة تمرد لبعض مكونات الشعب ضد النظام الحالي في البلاد. كما اتهمت الحكومة بالانحياز والانصياع لإملاءات دول من الجوار.

لكن قوى سياسية وعشائرية اخرى أعلنت دعمها الكامل للقرار معتبرة اياه بانه انحياز لمطالب سكان تلك الاقاليم التي كانت تعاني منذ سنوات من الظلم والتهميش. كما وصفت تلك القوى القرار بأنه خطوة جريئة نحو تطبيق مبدأ تقاسم السلطة والثروة في البلاد المبني على قيم العدالة والمساوة.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

صورة عبد الرحمن عبدي عبد الرحمن عبدي28 يونيو، 2014
صورة عبد الرحمن عبدي

عبد الرحمن عبدي

كاتب وصحفي صومالي

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