
منذ البداية، لم تكن العلاقة بين الرئيس حسن شيخ محمود ورئيس وزرائه عبدالولي شيخ، على ما يرام بالرغم من حرص المسؤولين على نفي وجود أي خلافات بينهما حتى ظهرت في الآونة الأخيرة على السطح مؤشرات واضحة دالة على استحالة توافقهما على آلية إدارة هذه المرحلة الصعبة من تاريخ البلاد.
أنكر رئيس الوزراء في تصريحات له لبعض وسائل الإعلام أثناء زيارته لبريطانيا الشهر الماضي وجود خلافات بينه وبين الرئيس غير أنه اشار الي وجود ما وصفه بـ “تباين في المواقف” واكد على ثقته بمؤسسات الدولة وقدرتها على حل الخلافات التي قد تظهر بينهما في المستقبل، مستبعدا امكانية حدوث صراع حقيقي على السلطة يؤدي الي تعطل مسيرة العملية السياسية في البلاد.
وكذلك نفى الرئيس حسن شيخ في أكثر من تصريح له لوسائل الإعلام الي وجود خلافات بينه وبين رئيس وزرائه وطمأن الشعب بانه لا عودة الي مربع الخلافات وان وجهات النظر المتباينة الموجودة حول إدارة شؤون البلاد ستتم حلها عبر الطرق القانونية.
فيما يبدو، الخلاف بين الرئيس ورئيس الوزراء تجاوز حدود الإختلاف في المواقف وبياين وجهات النظر، بل أخذ اليوم منعطفا خطيرا ينذر بصراع حقيقي بين الحكومة والرئاسة ربما لا ينتهي الا بخروج أحد المسؤولين كما جرت العادة، لأن الخلاف بينهما انتقل من الاختلاف في الرؤي الي صراع كسر العظم وخصوصا بعد التعديل الوزاري الأخير الذي اعتبره كثيرون بأنه ضربة استباقية وارهاصات للمواجهة الشاملة والمباشرة بين الرئيس ورئيس الوزراء.
كان التعديل الوزاري الذي أعلنه رئيس الوزراء أمس محدودا ولم يمس جوهر التركيبة السياسية لمجلس الوزراء الا أنه شمل وزراء مقربين من الرئيس وعلى رأسهم وزير العدل والشؤون القانونية، فارح شيخ عبدالقادر الذي عين وزيرا لوزارة الثروة الحيوانية وهذا ما أثار حفيظة الرئيس ودفعه الي رفض اعتماد التعديل الوزاري ووصفه بالغير الشرعي. هذا المشهد المتأزم ليس أمرا جديدا واعتاد الصوماليون على مثل هذا الخلافات التي تؤدي في نهاية المطاف الي سقوط الحكومة وخروج أحد المسؤولين، لكن الجميع قلق من مآلات هذا الصراع وانعكاسه على مشاريع إعادة اعمار البلاد والمصالحة وإنتخابات عام ٢٠١٦.
ماهو جوهر الخلاف بين الرئيس ورئيس الوزراء؟
جوهر الخلاف بين الرئيس ورئيس الوزراء يتعلق بطبيعية العلاقة بينهما وممارسة السلطات غير الواضحة التي يمنحهما الدستور المؤقت بالإضافة الي وجود اختلاف على كيفية مواجهة القضايا السياسية والأمنية في البلاد ولاسيما القضايا المتعلقة بالعلاقة بين الحكومة المركزية والإدارات الاقليمية وتعيين قيادات الأجهزة الأمنية. كما أن هناك سعي حثيث من الطرفين الي حجز مقاعدهما لمرحلة ما بعد انتخابات عام ٢٠١٦ ودور لوزير العدل والشؤون القانونية في رسم معالم تلك المرحلة وهذا الأمر هو الذي دفع رئيس الوزراء الي اجراء التعديل الوزاري الأخير .
ماهي السيناريوهات المحتملة؟
يبدو ان الخيارات أمام الرئيس متعددة، لكنها صعبة ومرة، لأن أي قرار يتخذه ضد رئيس الوزراء لا تخلو من تداعيات خطيرة على مستقبله السياسي ومصير البلاد الذي بدأ يتعافى من آثار الحرب الأهلية المستمرة أكثر من ٢٣ عاما ويشكل نكسة على التقدم الذي تم تحقيقه بشق الأنفس خلال السنوات الثلاثة الماضية على الصعيدين الأمني والسياسي، حيث رحب الاتحاد الاوروبي مطلع هذا السبوع الماضي خلال اجتماعه في لوكسمبورغ بالتقدم السياسي والأمني اللذين أحرزا منذ عقد مؤتمر (اتفاق جديد بشأن الصومال) في بروكسل في سبتمبر عام 2013.
وذكر مجلس الشؤون الخارجية للاتحاد الأوروبي في بيان له أن الاتحاد يرحب بالخطوات المتخذة لتنفيذ (رؤية 2016) التي وضعتها الحكومة الصومالية من أجل إحداث التحول السياسي في البلاد. لكن هذا التقدم على المحك وان الخلافات بين الرئيس ورئيس وزرائه لا شك ستأثر سلبا على هذا التقدم ويؤدي الي عدم الوفاء بتعهدات الحكومة وخصوصا فيما يتعلق بإنشاء الإدارات الإقلمية واجراء تعديلات على الدستور وتشكيل اللجنة العليا للإنتخابات، كما سيسبب الخلاف في اهتزاز ثقة الشعب والمجتمع الدولي الذي بدأ يهتم بالشأن الصومالي على مؤسسات الدولة.
ووفقا للمعطيات على الأرض والمعلومات الشحيحة الواردة من القصر الرئاسي فان الرئيس يقوم بفرز خياراته اذا ما تأجج الخلاف وقرر رئيس الوزراء باتخاذ خطوات أخرى تصعيدية وأنه يمكن أن يختار من بين عدة خيارات مطروحة أمامه بشكل تدريجي من بينها طلب الوزراء المؤيدين له من الاستقالة لإسقاط الحكومة والدعوة الي اختيار رئيس وزراء جديد وان هذه الخيار يبدوا صعبا، لأن معظم الوزراء مؤيدون لرئيس الوزراء وأنهم كانوا ضمن الشخصيات التي اختارها رئيس الوزراء بنفسه لكن ليس معنى ذلك أن الرئيس لا يلجأ الي هذا القرار وانما يفضل الخيارات الحاسمة التي تحسم المشكلة بشكل نهائي ولهذا السبب يمكن ان يتم طرح مشروع اقتراع لسحب الثقة من رئيس الوزراء على البرلمان الذي يراه كثرون بأن معظم أعضائه موالون للرئيس. لكن هذا الخيار يمكن أن يواجه عقبة من اعضاء البرلمان القبليين الذين تدهورت علاقاتهم مع الرئيس على خلفية الخطوات التي قامت بها الحكومة مؤخرا لنزع السلاح من بقايا زعماء المليشيات القبلية. كما أنه يمكن ان يصطدم هذا الخيار مع ضغوط المجتمع الدولي أو الدول الإقليمية لمنع تدهور الأمور وللحيلولة دون استغلال حركة الشباب من هذا الخلافات وتصعيد عملياتها ضد مواقع الدولة وقواعد قوات بعثة الاتحاد الأفريقي في الصومال.
ما هي تداعيات الخلاف على العملية السياسية؟
والواقع أن الأيام المقبلة حبلى بالأحداث نتيجة الحرب على حركة الشباب المشتعلة في أكثر من جبهة بالبلاد والاستعدادات الجارية لمرحلة ما بعد عام ٢٠١٦ والخلافات بين الأطراف السياسية على تشكيل الإدارات المحلية، بالاضافة الي الإهتمام الدولي المتزايد بالشأن الصومالي والإستثمار فيه وهذا الأمر يتطلب من الفرقاء السياسين بضبط النفس والإبتعاد عن التصعيد، لأن ذلك يقوض فرص إعادة الإعمار وبناء قدرات مؤسسات الدولة كما يخيب آمال ملايين الصوماليين في النظام الحالي التي تبدي تخوفها وقلقها من ان تؤدي الخلافات المتكررة بين المسؤولين السياسين الي إطالة الأزمة وتعطل مسيرة التنمية في البلاد.
ما هو الخيار المفضل ؟
ووفقا للدستور المؤقت لا يحق للرئيس اقالة رئيس الوزراء ولا يمكن عزل الأخير الا من خلال البرلمان وحتى اذا نجح الرئيس باقالة رئيس الوزراء عبر البرلمان فان هذا لا يعني انتهاء المشكلة؛ لأن رئيس الوزراء السابق عبدي شردون تم عزله من قبل البرلمان لكن المشكلة لا تزال تتكرر، ولذلك فالتوافق السياسي هو الطريق الأفضل لحل الأزمة والمراهنة على البرلمان لتصفية الحسابات لن تجدي نفعا وليست لمصلحة البلاد، بل تعقد الأمور وتفقد الثقة بين القبائل الصومالية كما تقلل فرص ضمان تشكيل حكومة مستقرة في المستقبل.
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ليس من اختصاصات الرئيس رفض التعديل الوزاري وعليه القبول بالأمر الواقع
لا تحزن يا استادنا عبد الوهاب………فالله خير حافظا….ولكن لا حياة لمن تنادى…….و..للبلاد رب سيحميها باذن الله تعالى