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تعرّف على أبرز المرشّحين للسباق الرئاسي في جوبالاند

تستعدّ إدارة جوبالاند لإجراء انتخابات رئاسية في 24/أغسطس- آب/ 2019م، وفق آخر إعلان للجنة المستقلّة للانتخابات والحدود، وقد ترشح لتلك الانتخابات حتى الآن عدد كبير  من السياسيين أبرزهم الرئيس الحالي للولاية أحمد اسلام مدوبي، والنائب في البرلمان الصومالي عبدالرشيد حدك،  و محمد يوسف أوطاهر، وعبدالناصر سيرار ، وعبدالفتّاح محمد علي،  عبدالله عيل موغي حرسي، وغيرهم ممن سنقف عليهم في السطور الآتية:

  1. أحمد مذوبي: وهو أحمد محمد إسلام (أحمد مذوبي) رئيس جوبالاند المنتهية ولايته، ومؤسس جوبالاند، وذلك بعد خوضه معارك عسكرية ضدّ حركة الشباب عندما كان قياديا في جماعة راس كمبوني والتي كانت على خلاف مع حركة الشباب، مما جعله ينسّق ويتعاون مع القوات الكينية التي كانت تواجه حركة الشباب في جوبالاند وفي الحدود الكينية الصومالية، ويرى كثير من المحللين، أنّ أحمد مذوبي أبرز مرشّحي انتخابات جوبالاند، يعدّ أوفرهم حظّا بالنسبة لمنافسيه، ذلك أنّ الإنجازات التي حقّقها خلال حكمه لجوبالاند تشفع له حسب رأي كثير من المتابعين، وخصوصا، تلك الإنجازات المتعلّقة بإعادة الأمن والاستقرار إلى مناطق جوبالاند، وذلك بسبب اهتمامه البالغ للعمليات ضدّ حركة الشباب في هذه المناطق، حيث بلغ به الاهتمام إلى أن يقوم بنفسه بقيادة بعض العمليات العسكرية ضدّ حركة الشباب، كما أن وجود سند وظهير إقليمي (يقصد بكينيا) يقف إلى جانبه من الأسباب التي تجعل البعض يعتقد بأنّه سيفوز في الانتخابات المقبلة، ومهما يكن من أمر فإن هناك عقبات ربما تحول دون فوز أحمد مذوبي بالرئاسة منها إمكانية عدم قبول الحكومة الفيدرالية لنتائج انتخابات جوبالاند، ما لم تتبع جوبالاند الخطوات واللوائح التي وضعتها وزارة الداخلية بخصوص الانتخابات الرئاسية والبرلمانية في الولايات الفيدرالية، كما أن تكوين مجلس اتّحادي ضدّ أحمد مذوبي لمرشحي رئاسة جوبالاند، يعدّ تحدّيا كبيرا سيواجهه أحمد مذوبي في الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة.
  2. عبدالناصر سيرار: يعتبر عبدالناصر سيرار رفيق أحمد مذوبي في النضال ضدّ حركة الشباب منذ أن كانا قياديين بارزين في جماعة راس كمبوني، ومنذ تأسيس جوبالاند، يعتبر منافسا قويا لأحمد مذوبي رغم كونه في فترة من الفترات المتحدّث الرسمي باسم ولاية جوبالاند، وقد لمع اسم عبدالناصر سيرار كمرشح رئاسي ومنافس قويّ لأحمد مذوبي بعد الحادثة الشهيرة في مطار كسمايو أوائل شهر مايو/أيار من هذا العام، وذلك عند قدومه من مقديشو إلى كسمايو، وكانت تلك الحادثة عبارة  عن تبادل لإطلاق النار بين الحرس المرافق لمرشح رئاسة جوبالاندعبدالناصر سيراروبين أفراد الأمن المخولين لحفظ أمن المطار وذلك عقب نشوب خلاف بين المرشح الذي رفض تفتيش حقائبه وبين مسؤولي المطار الذين أرادوا تفتيش حقائب المرشح تأدية لواجباتهم الوظيفية، وبعد هذه الحادثة اتّهم أحمد مذوبي الحكومة الفيدرالية بأنّها أرسلت سيرار إلى كسمايو لزعزعة أمنها واستقرارها، وهو ما نفاه كل من عبدالناصر سيرار والحكومة الفيدرالية. وقد يرى بعض المتابعين أن سيرار من أبرز المرشحين ومن أوفرهم حظا، ذلك لأنّه يتمتّع بدعم الحكومة الفيدرالية، حسب تحليلات المحللين الّذين يستندون إلى معلومات نشرتها بعض وسائل إعلام محلّية ورد فيها أن سيرار يتلقى دعما ماليا من دولة قطر التي تعتبر أهم حلفاء الحكومة الفيدرالية، لذا يعتقد المتابعون أنّه لو صحّت هذه الأخبار فإنما تدلّ على أن سيرار يتمتع بدعم قويّ يجعله منافسا قويا للرئيس المنتهية ولايته السيد أحمد مذوبي.
  3. عبدالرشيد حدك: عضو من أعضاء البرلمان الصومالي، ترشح لمنصب رئاسة البرلمان الصومالي في 2017م، إلاّ أنّه خسر في ذلك، وهو الآن من أبرز مرشّحي الرئاسة في جوبالاند. ويعتقد بعض المتابعين أن حدك هو الخيار الثاني الذي من الممكن أن تواجه الحكومة الفيدرالية بأحمد مذوبي في حال فشل سيرار بإحراز تقدّم في الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة، ويعتمدون في ذلك على تصريحات حدك المناوئة لسياسات أحمد مذوبي، والمدافعة في الوقت نفسه عن دور الحكومة الفيدرالية في متابعة عمليات الانتخابات الرئاسية والبرلمانية في الولايات الفيدرالية بشكل عام، وولاية جوبالاند بشكل خاص.
  4. عبدالله عيل موغي حرسي: يعدّ عيل موغي حرسي المرشّح الرئاسي السابق في 2017م، من أشهر المرشّحين الحاليين لرئاسة جوبالاند، تولّى حرسي في فترة من الفترات منصب وزير الإعلام والاتّصالات في الحكومة الفيدرالية، ويحظى بثقة كثيرين من أعضاء برلمان جوبالاند، وذلك بناء على إنجازاته السابقة عندما كان وزيرا للإعلام، حيث يعدّ من الوزراء ذوي الكفاءات الّذين شغلوا هذه المناصب.
  5. عبدالله صلاد أومار: وهو وزير النقل الجوي والبري في الحكومة الفيدرالية، وقد أعلن ترشّحه للانتخابات الرئاسية بجوبالاند في 28/مارس-آذار/2019م، وهو من المرّشحين الدّاعين إلى ضرورة حدوث تغيّر سياسي في جوبالاند، حيث اتّهم أحمد مذوبي بالتقصير عن مكافحة حركة الشباب وتطهيرها من جوبالاند، وذلك في لقاء جمع الوزير بأعيان من عشيرته بنيروبي في منتصف يونيو/حزيران 2018م، أي قبل ترشّحه بشهور كثيرة.
  6. د. محمد إبراهيم شكول: ترشّح لمنصب رئاسة جوبالاند في 2013م، لكنه خسر السباق، وهو رجل أعمال صومالي مشهور في كينيا، ويعدّ من الإسلاميين حيث يساهم في عمليات الدعوة والإرشاد التي يقوم بها جمع من العلماء الصوماليين في كينيا، وهو الآن مرشّح من مرشحي انتخابات الرئاسة في جوبالاند

ومهما يكن من أمر فإنّه من الصعب التكهن بمن سيفوز على الانتخابات الرئاسية في جوبالاند، وذلك لتعدّد المؤثرات السياسية والأمنية والاقتصادية والإقليمية، وكذلك لتعدّد القوى والتكتلات التي تولي اهتماما لما يجري في جوبالاند والتي تسعى إلى إخضاع مجريات أحداث جوبالاند لصالحها، مما سيزيد المخاوف لدى الشعب الصومالي وخاصة سكّان مناطق جوبالاند الّذين يتخوّفون من أن تقودهم تجاذبات هذه الانتخابات إلى مصير مشابه لما حدث في بيدوة نهاية العام الماضي، وهو ما أشارت إليه أحزاب سياسية أصدرت قبل أيام في مقديشو بيانا حذّرت فيه الجميع من الانزلاق في مخاطر تحاكي ما حدث في ولاية جنوب غرب الصومال نهاية العام الماضي، وهي مخاطر لا يقبلها الشعب أن تعود مرّة أخرى حسب بيان الأحزاب السياسية الصادر قبل أسبوع.

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