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الممكن والمستحيل في احتواء جماعة الشباب في الصومال.. مقاربات واحتمالات

في الآونة الأخيرة، ازدادت الضربات الأمنية القاسية والموجهة إلى الداخل الصومالي، وخاصة في العاصمة مقديشو، من قبل جماعة الشباب الصومالية، بعد أن خفت وطأة هذه الضربات فترة من الزمن داخل العاصمة المذكورة، وهو ما يثير العديد من التساؤلات حول أسباب التدهور الطارئ في منظومة الأمن الصومالي، والذي تسبب مؤخراً في قيام هذه الحركة باستهداف كافة شرائح الشعب الصومالي بمن فيها بعض الشخصيات القيادية والسياسية والأمنية في البلاد؟؟

وإلى جانب التساؤلات المتعلقة بطبيعة الدور الأمني الصومالي في مواجهة الضربات الأمنية المشار إليها لجماعة الشباب، تزدحم وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي على فيس بوك وتويتر ومنتديات الدردشة الخاصة بالشباب الصومالي في داخل البلاد وخارجها، بتساؤلات أخرى عديدة حول القضية الأمنية ذاتها، وبطرق وصيغ وأفكار مختلفة في طرح التساؤلات وإبداء الخلفيات الفكرية والثقافية الكامنة وراء طرح تلك التساؤلات!!

ولكن اللافت للنظر من بين جميع التساؤلات تلك، تساؤل يقول: لماذا لا تقوم الحكومة المركزية في مقديشو باحتواء جماعة الشباب واكتساب ودها، ومن ثم تجنب ضرباتها الأمنية وشرورها العسكرية؟ إلى جانب تساؤل آخر يقول: لماذا لا تطبق الحكومة المركزية في مقديشو السياسات الاحتوائية التي اتخذها رئيس الوزراء الإثيوبي آبي أحمد تجاه الحركات المتشددة في إثيوبيا، والتي أدت إلى تجنيب البلاد شرور هذه الحركات، وإلى دمج الكثير من عناصرها في المنظومة السياسية والوطنية الإثيوبية؟ إلى غير ذلك من تساؤلات مشابهة ترتبط بشكل أساسي بمسألة(الاحتواء الرسمي والحكومي) لجماعة الشباب وعناصرها المسلحة والمتشددة!!

وينطلق مضمون هذا العرض من أهم تلك التساؤلات الشعبية والجماهيرية المطروحة، ويطرح بدوره مجموعة من التساؤلات الموازية، قبل أن يبحث ويفتش لها ولغيرها عن إجابات أقرب إلى الإقناع والعقلانية، وهذه التساؤلات هي: هل يمكن للحكومة الصومالية في مقديشو احتواء جماعة الشباب؟ وما طبيعة نظرة وتوجهات هذه الجماعة تجاه الحكم في الصومال؟ وما نسبة النجاح المتوقعة في احتواء الحركات المسلحة في القارة الإفريقية؟ وما الفارق بين خطوات آبي أحمد في إثيوبيا والخطوات المشابهة التي يطالب بها البعض حكومة مقديشو في هذا الإطار؟ وأخيراً ما الممكن والمستحيل في احتواء جماعة الشباب في الصومال؟

لقراءة الدراسة كاملة اضغط:المستحيل في احتواء جماعة الشباب الصومالية..مقاربات واحتمالات pdf

محسن حسن

باحث وأكاديمي مصري

مقالات ذات صلة

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