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في ظلال سحب الرئيس البساط من تحت أقدام البرلمان

حسم الجدل البرلماني في تمرير أنموذج انتخابات 2016 أمس الأحد 22/5/2016 بقرار رئاسيّ، بعد فشل البرلمان الوطنيّ في عدّة جلسات في التوصّل إلى نتيجة بشأن الأنموذج الذي اقترح كحلٍّ لأزمة مستعصية بين القيادات الإقليمية والحكومة الفيدرالية برعاية أممية ودوليّة، سحب البساط من تحت أقدام البرلمان، فاجأ الجميع لكونه من صنف القرارات الجريئة غير المعهودة من الرئيس، حيث لم يكن في الحسبان، وكانت الأيدي على القلب، من فوات فرصة ذهبية لتحقيق تداول سلمي للسلطة ينتقل من خلاله إلى مرحلة الاقتراع الشعبي المباشر في انتخابات 2020 ، بعد تأجيلات البرلمان وتسرب أنباء عن أنّ اللجنة البرلمانية المكلفة بالنظر في هذا الأنموذج تسعى إلى إدخال تعديلات في المقترح الحساس، مما قد ينسف كلّ الجهود ويؤدّي إلى العودة إلى نقطة الصفر.

كانت أمنيات الجميع بمن فيهم الإدارات الإقليمية والحكومة الفيدرالية والمجتمع الدوليّ في أن يجد هذا الأنموذج طريقه إلى إجازة المجلس الوطني وتطوى بذلك صفحة من التجاذبات بالغة الحساسية والتعقيد، حتى تمرّ الانتخابات بنجاح في موعدها المحدد. وكانت تلفهم الخشية من المساس بفقراته لصالح جهات أخرى محتجة بانطواء المقترح على إجحاف بها أو بمنطقتها فيؤدّي ذلك إلى تهاويه والجهود التي أدّت إليه برمّتها.

وقد شكّل هذا القرار مصدر ارتياح لكلّ تلك الأطراف التي رأت فيه المخرج الأسلم والأوحد من الأزمة، وستعلن عن ترحيباتها وارتياحها بعد ساعات من جس النبض واستشعار الأجواء للاطمئنان على ردود الأفعال المحلّية خاصة من قبل البرلمان على هذا القرار، بينما شكل صدمة لبعض الأطراف في البرلمان وفي الحكومة الفيدرالية المحتجة بأنّ المقترح من شأنه أن يضع البرلمان في كلا مجلسيه في أيدى الإدارات الإقليمية لتتخذمنه أداة لتمرير سياساتها، حيث منح المقترح رؤساء الإدارات الإقليمية صلاحية اختيار الأعضاء الممثلين عن الإقليم في المجلسين وتصديق الموافقة النهائي على تمثيلهم. وحيث لا توجد إدارة إقليمية تضمّ محافظة بنادر التي تقع فيها العاصمة ، فإنّ المحافظة محرومة من هذا الحق الذي منح سائر الإدارات الإقليمية، وتطالب الأطراف المحتجّة بأن تمنح محافظة بنادر هذا الحق أيضاً في وجود أعضاء ممثلين عنها وباختيار إدارتها ، مقترحة إدخال تعديل على النموذج يتاح بموجبه إضافة سبعة أعضاء ممثلين عن محافظة بنادر في أعضاء المجلس الأعلى للبرلمان، وهو ما ترفضه إدارتا بونت لاند وجوبالاند الحليفان والشريكان المحوريان في المقترح.

بإمكان هذه الجهات المتململة من القرار المناورة بإثارة زوبعة قانونية ضدّ القرار الرئاسي، لكنها زوبعة تقل فرص نجاحها في التأثير على سريان القرار، ولن تلبث أن تتلاشى أمام ثغرات القانون وفي محيط مطاطية فقراته المطاوعة لما يجيده الكلّ من تفسيراتها وترتيباتها وفق أمزجته المتقلبة. خاصة وأنّ البرلمان الحالي على وشك انتهاء مدّته. مما يضعه في موقف ضعيف، حيث لم يبق من عمره ما يكفي للتأسيس لمناورات تتطلب إثارتها وقتاً، ومن ثمّ انتظار نتائجها وقطف ثمارها.

بينما يجد القرار قوته من موافقته لرغبة أطراف عديدة داخليّة من الوزن الثقيل في الساحة السياسة الصومالية، هي بونت لاند وجوبالاند ورئاسة الجمهورية ومؤيدون آخرون في البرلمان وفي الحكومة. وموافقته أيضاً لرغبة الأطراف الدولية والأممية الفاعلة في السياسة الصومالية، منها إثيوبيا، والاتحاد الإفريقي والأمم المتحدة الذين ظلّ مندوبوهم وممثلوهم طوال الأيام الماضية إمّا يعربون عن قلقهم إزاء اختلاف أعضاء البرلمان على النموذج وتأخر إجازته لهذا السبب، أويشدّدون على ضرورة تسريع المجلس الوطني إجازة المقترح، وينوهون بما يتصف به في نظرهم من تلبيته لطموحات الصوماليين، وما يمثله من أهميّة سياسية في كونه معبراً إلى التداول السلمي للسلطة وإلى نظام الاقتراع الشعبي المباشر في انتخابات 2020.

ومن الدروس المتعلمة في السياسة الصومالية في الفترة الأخيرة من الاعتماد على الدعم الخارجي رجاحة كفة الأطراف الدولية في كافّة حالات الاختلاف الداخليّ. كما عرف عن البرلمان عدم ميله إلى مصادمة المجتمع الدوليّ، وتفضيله اتخاذ استراتيجية غض الطرف والنسيان أو التناسي حتّى في القضايا الأكثر حساسية ومساساً بالسيادة والشرعية.

لكل هذا يترجح أنه ستبقى أصوات الاحتجاج المحتملة داخل البرلمان مخنوقة خافتة غير مسموعة، ولن تصمد طويلا إن ظهرت ، كما لن تجدي أثراً، وسيجد القرار طريقه إلى التطبيق والسريان. و في الأيام القليلة القادمة ستنكشف حقيقة هذه المقاربة ومدى قربها أو بعدها من ظلال سحب الرئيس البساط من تحت أقدام البرلمان.

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