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صعوبات مرحلة الانتقال وبوادرالتّمديد

صورة محمود عيسى فارح محمود عيسى فارح3 مايو، 2016

مع اشراف صلاحية الحكومة الحاليّة على الانتهاء واقتراب موسم الانتخابات او بالأحرى موسم التّعيين – لنكون دقيقين فى استخدام الكلمة – يعيش البلد فى حالة استنفار سيياسى لا مثيل لها استعدادا للمناسبة من خلال :-  –

تجاذبات الأطراف والمركز: فى ظلّ تأسّس ادارات اقليميّة فى طول البلاد وعرضها وتخويلهم حقّ البتّ فى مسار الانتقال السّياسى دون غيرهم وضعهم فى مركز القوّة والتّأثير ويمكن لبعض المسائل السّياسيّة والدّستوريّة العالقة الّتى ستتمّ مناقشتها هذا الشهر بين الحكومة الفدراليّة وتلك الادارات أن تشهد بعض المناقصات الحادّة وبما أنّ الرّؤى السياسيّة لدى هذه الأطراف محصورة لكن مشتّتة فى زاوية ضيّقة من المصالح الشّخصيّة , هذا يجعلنا نتمنّى أن يرضى كلّ الموقّعين السّبعة لأنه لا توجد آلية تفصل فيما بينهم عند الخلاف

اعادة صياغة التّشكّلات الفرديّة والعشائريّة: فى الصومال لا يوجد شىء اسمه الثّبات على رؤية او موقف, يتحوّل المعارض العنيد الى مؤيّد عتيد بين عشيّة وضحاها وكأنّ شياء لم يكن بالأمس , ولائات آلاف من افراد قبيلة مّا تتغيّر بتأثير تحوّل شخصيّة واحدة من مخيّم ( أ) الى مخيّم (ب),  لذالك فانّ كلّ المرشّحين الأقوياء لم يفصحو عن ترشّحهم بملىء فمهم بعد للحفاط على أوراقهم للجولات الأخيرة أوّلا وطمعا فى الحصول على استقطابات بعض الشّخصيات المتنفّذة من هنا وهناك

– حملات الضّغط من أجل انتزاع أكبر عدد ممكنة من الكراسى لصالح قبيلة ضدّ قبيلة: قديما كنت أسمع انّ القبيلة ما هى الّا كبصلة ( طبقات فوق بعضها) ان حاولت ازالة هذه الطّبفات للوصول الى النّواة ستنتهى بالعدم , هذه المقولة تنطبق على نظام المحاصصة القائم حاليّا , فعندما تطفرأحد القبائل بما يُخيّل اليك بعض الامتيازات تتفاجئ فى الآخر بوجود صراعات محمومة تحتدم بين بطونها افخاذها وتحت افخاذها الى مالا نهاية , أرى أنّ بالامكان ايجاد صيغة قابلة لتّطبيق فى نهاية المطاف لكن تسبقها أشواط صعبة من السّباقات

– ظهور الخلاف من جديد حول مسألة من له الحقّ فى تمثيل دور شيخ القبيلة: هناك العديد من القبائل الّتى تشهد صراعات من هذا النّوع وذالك نتيجة لـ:

لوفاة عدد من هؤلاء الشّيوخ ضمن 135 الّذين كانو وراء اختيار النّواب الحاليّين عام 2012 .

لم يكن كلّ الشّيوخ 135 السّالف ذكرهم هم الحقيقيّين , كان بعضهم مجرّد وكلاء لكن مع اعتماد توقيعه فى الدّورة الأولى يترائى له فعل نفس الشىء وان بوجود الشّيخ الحقيقى نظرا لما فى المحكّ , لذالك فانّهم يتشبّثون بالموقع وبأىّ ثمن.

يلجأ بعض السّياسيّين الى نصب شيوخ جُدد على أمل الامتطاء بهم فى طريقهم لقبّة البرلمان من دون النّظر لما يتولّد من ذالك من جرعات عدائيّة تحدث فى المجتمع والّتى تهدّد بتفكيك النّسيج الاجتماعى المتهالك اصلا.

المشهد السّياسىّ اليوم يكتنفه الكثير من الغموض بما يستدعى طرح الكثير من علامات الاستفهام والتّعجّب , وللعلم فانّ محاولة فهم المسار السّياسىّ الصّومالى يجب أن لا يأخذك الى مقديشو أو أىّ مدينة صوماليّة اذ لا يمكنك استيعاب التّفاصيل حتّى لو خالطت أبرز السّياسيّين فيها لأنّ الخلطة السّحريّة للطّبخة لا تتوفّر إلّا خارج الدّيار كما عوّدونا فى العقود الثّلاثة الأخيرة : نيروبى واديس ابابا وما وراءهما وعندما تدرك هذا الأمر تعرف بسهولة لماذا كلّ السّاسة يتنقّلون من وإلى نيروبى بين الفينة والأخرى ويتّخذونها مركزا لنشاطاتهم حتى المترشّحين للرّئاسة يقبعون فيها حاليّا

فى خضمّ هذه الأحداث المتسارعة لم يتبقّ من الوقت الّا ثلاثة شهور ولم يتمّ الشّروع فى العمليّة بجدّية بعد ومن المستبعد أن تُنجز كلّ هذه الأعمال فى هذه الفترة الوجيزة بعد اهدار الوقت فى أمور ثانويّة طيلة السّنوات الأربع , هذا ما دفع رئيس الحكومة بتقديم طلب على استحياء لمجلس البرلمان لتمديده فترة شهرين يعنى ابقاء مجلس الشّعب حتّى منتصف اكتوبر من هذا العام

يرى بعض المحلّلون أنّ الهدف من ذالك هو من أجل كسب بعض الوقت لمؤتمر اقليمى هيران وشبيلى الوسطى الجارى انعقاده وذالك للحصول على وقت كافى يمكن من خلاله انتداب ممثّلين فى كلّ من مجلس الشّيوخ ومجلس الشّعب وهى كعكعة تتنافس عليها الحكومة الفدراليّة كما أنّ البعض الآخر يرون طرح شهرين للتّمديد بمثابة اختبار لردّ فعل الشّارع ومدى مقاومته للفكرة وانّما هى مقدّمة لمشروع  تمديد يتراح بين سنة وسنتين

استعارة أيّام اضافيّة بعد الإخفاق فى إقامة انتخابات شعبيّة عامّة أمر لا يستصيغه الكثيرون وربّما تعرّض المسؤولين الكبار للمزيد من الانتقادات والتّهكّم وهذا ما حصل يوم الخميس الماضى كما جاء فى لسان بعض النّوّاب الّذين أعربو معارضتهم الشّديدة للمشروع لكنّ وعلى ضوء سلوك النّواب فى تعاملهم مع مسائل كهذه فى السّابق ندرك أنّ ردود أفعالهم الأوليّة وتصريحاتهم امام الكاميرا لا يمكن التّعويل عليها كثيرا أو بناء الاستنتاجات عليها فالأمور هنا تُحسم فى اللّيل على وقع موسيقى وعلى نار هادئة , كما أنّ المصلحة المشتركة تقتضى موافقتهم عليها كونهم على متن سفينة واحدة

هناك بعض العوامل الأخرى الّتى قد تساعد شرماركى فى تمرير مشروع التّمديد ومنها:

  1. أنّ الكثير من الطّامحين للتّرشّح يمنّون النّفس للحصول على أيّام اضافيّة قبل دقّ الجرس النّهائى مع أنّهم لايرغبون فى رؤية دولة الرئيس حسن تتمتّع فى الحكم لشهور اضافيّة لكنّهم قد لا يضايقونه بالضّجيج خصوصا اذا كانت فترة وجيزة مثل شهرين كما يتردّد
  2. انشغال رؤساء الإدارات الاقليميّة بأمورهم المحليّة رئيس ولاية بونت لاند ببعض المشاريع الخليجية والأوروبيّة بعضها جاءت مباشرة كثمار لعمليّة التّسوية السّياسيّة بينه وبين الحكومة الفدراليّة وبالتّالى فانّ الولاية تعيش مرحلة مهادنة سياسيّة , أضف الى ذالك انغماس رئيسى غلمدق وجوبا لاند – وان كان الأوّل صديقا مقرّبا للرّئيس حسن- فى حلحلة خلافات عشائريّة دموية خلّفت وراءها الكثير من الخسائر البشريّة والماديّة

 

صورة محمود عيسى فارح محمود عيسى فارح3 مايو، 2016
صورة محمود عيسى فارح

محمود عيسى فارح

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