لو لم تكن هناك سابقة في المنطقة، لكان من الصعب تصديق أن دولة تفككّت وأنّه يمكن لهذه الدولة أن تبقى في هذه الحال لفترة طويلة. أكثر من ذلك، قد لا تعود هذه الدولة إلى ما كانت عليه في يوم من الأيّام. هذه السابقة هي الصومال.
في الصومال، حيث لم تعد دولة، اضطر الديكتاتور محمد سياد بري إلى ترك السلطة في مطلع العام ١٩٩١ بعدما ثار عليه زعماء قبيليون من معظم أنحاء البلد. فرّ سياد برّي في البداية إلى مسقط رأسه واحتمى بقبيلته. منذ ذلك التاريخ، تحوّلت الصومال مشاعًا ومسرحًا لحروب صغيرة وكبيرة لم تنجح كلّ الجهود الدوليّة والإقليميّة في وضع نهاية لها. كلّ كلام عن استعادة الصومال وضع الدولة يومًا هراء بهراء. انتقم سياد بري من الذين أرادوا خلافته. مع مغادرته مقديشو، انتهت الصومال ولم يعد يجد هؤلاء من يحكمونه وأرضًا صُلبة يقفون عليها.
كان هناك كلام كثير في السنوات الماضية عن احتمال “صوملة” اليمن في ضوء الصعوبات الكبيرة التي تواجه هذه الدولة التي يسودها حاليًا وضع في غاية التعقيد.
لا يزال خطر “صوملة اليمن” قائمًا. زادت احتمالات الصوملة مع سيطرة الحوثيين، وهم لواء في “الحرس الثوري” الإيراني عناصره يمنيّة، على مناطق واسعة من الشمال. بات الحوثيون، الذين استطاعوا تغيير طبيعة المجتمع اليمني في المناطق الزيدية التي تحت سيطرتهم، يتحكّمون بكلّ المداخل الشمالية لصنعاء حيث بعض أهمّ معسكرات الجيش اليمني.
فوق ذلك كلّه، للحوثيين وجود قوي في صنعاء نفسها، لكنّ الواضح أن هدفهم المباشر، أقلّه في المدى المنظور، ليس السيطرة على العاصمة نفسها بمقدار ما أنّهم يريدون إقامة كيان خاص بهم لديه منفذ معترف به على البحر الأحمر.
في السنة ٢٠١٤، لم يعد خطر الصوملة مقتصرًا على اليمن حيث يتعزّز الاتجاه الانفصالي بشكل يومي في المحافظات الجنوبيّة وحيث يبحث الوسط الشافعي، ذو الكثافة السكّانية، عن قيادة تمتلك برنامجًا واضحًا يسير خلفها تفاديًا لتحوّله “إمارة اسلاميّة”.
لم يعد اليمن وحده مهددًا بـ”الصوملة”. هناك سوريا وهناك العراق وهناك ليبيا. فعل رئيس النظام السوري كلّ شيء من أجل تأجيج الحرب الأهليّة وتفتيت سوريا وإثارة النعرات المذهبيّة. ما تشهده سوريا يوميًا، بدعم إيراني مكشوف، مباشرة أو عن طريق الميليشيات المذهبية اللبنانية والعراقية، أقرب إلى عمليات تطهير عرقي ذات طابع واضح كلّ الوضوح. لو لم يكن الأمر كذلك، كيف يتحدّث الأسد الابن في خطاب القسم، الذي لم يستطع إلقاءه في مجلس الشعب (البرلمان) عن استعادة السلطة فيما عدد السوريين المهجّرين يزيد على نصف عدد السكّان وفيما المدن السنّية الكبرى مدمّرة على نحو شبه كامل؟
تبيّن مع مرور الوقت أن محمد سياد برّي كان المثل الأعلى لبشّار الأسد الذي رفع أنصاره منذ بداية الثورة الشعبية وقبل ظهور “داعش” وما شابهها شعار “الأسد أو لا أحد”. هل أفضل من مدرسة سياد برّي للانتقام من السوريين؟
ما فعله صدّام حسين في العراق حيث أقام نظامًا عائليًا ـ بعثيّا ودخل حربين عبثيتين، مع إيران بين ١٩٨٠ و١٩٨٨ وفي الكويت في ١٩٩٠ و١٩٩١، هربًا من أزمته الداخليّة المستمرّة، دمّر العراق أو ما بقي منه. دمّر عمليا النسيج الاجتماعي لبلد كان يمكن أن يكون بالفعل نموذجًا لما يمكن أن تكون عليه دول المنطقة بفضل الثروات التي يمتلكها، في مقدّمها ثروة الإنسان والثروات الطبيعية.
فرّ صدّام أمام الأمريكيين وترك بلدًا محطمًا ليس في الإمكان إعادة تركيبه أو لملمته. من يفعل ما فعله صدّام، بغبائه المنقطع النظير، لا يستحق سوى الانتماء إلى مدرسة سياد برّي التي يظلّ التلميذ المتفوّق فيها العقيد معمّر القذّافي.
مع كلّ يوم يمرّ، يتبيّن أنّ من الصعب التفوّق على معمّر القذّافي في مجال السير على خُطى سيّاد برّي. ترك القذّافي لليبيين كلّ ما من شأنه إدخال البلد في أتون حروب أهليّة لا نهاية لها. ترك في المدن والقرى والبلدات كميات من الأسلحة والأحقاد الدفينة والجهل والنزاعات القبليّة ما يكفي لبقاء نار الحروب الداخلية مشتعلة سنوات طويلة. بفضل هذه الأسلحة، صارت مصر مهدّدة انطلاقًا من الحدود الليبية، كذلك تونس والجزائر وكلّ منطقة الساحل الإفريقي…
نعم، إنّ محمّد سياد برّي مدرسة بحد ذاته. تختصر هذه المدرسة مأساة دول عربية عدّة اعتبر حكّامها أنهم يُجسّدون البلد وأن أهله عبيد لديهم. كان الاعتقاد السائد أن الصومال حالة استثنائيّة، إلى أن تبيّن أنّها حالة تكاد أن تصبح حالة عامّة بوجود حكّام عرب يؤمنون بالسلطة وليس بشيء آخر غير السلطة.
المصدر- جريدة الراية القطرية
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