على مدى سنوات وتحدثت الحكومات المتعاقبة في المشهد الصومالي عن عزمها الدخول في مفاوضات مع حركة الشباب؛ لكنها لم تتقدم بأية خطة جادة للتعاطي مع الحركة المتمردة وبقي ما يسمى بـ”سياسة الأبواب المفتوحة” التي انتهجتها الحكومة حبرا على ورق لمدة ثلاث سنوات. لهذا على القادة في الحكومة الصومالية، إضافة إلى المجتمع الدولي، تبني خيار التفاوض كسبيل فعال لبناء سلام دائم ودولة فاعلة في الصومال؛ إذ انه ليس من الممكن ان يحسم طرف المعركة وإذا كانت أمريكا بقوتها وجبورتها تتحاور مع عدوها طالبنا فما الذي يمنع الأشقاء من الجلوس على مائدة التفاوض؟
وإذا كانت أمريكا ومعها الدول الاوربية وحلف الناتو وقبلهم الإتحاد السوفيتي لم تستطع ان يهزمو القاعدة في جبال أفغانستان فكيف لنا ان نتظر من حكومة هشة ضعيفة لا تستطيع ان تحمي مقراتها من ان تحسم امر حركة الشباب التابعة لتنظيم القاعدة؟!
وهناك عوامل تأيد هذا الطرح:
غالبا ما تنتهي الحروب إما عن طريق تحقيق النصر العسكري لأحد الأطراف بشكل حاسم، أو عقد تسوية عن طريق التفاوض. وفي الصومال فلم يحسِم أيُّ طرف الصراعَ ولهذا فإن الخيار الوحيد المتبقي للأطراف المتصارعة لإنهاء هذا الصراع -أو على الأقل التخفيف منه- هو خيار التفاوض
لم يكن التفاوض في الفترات السابقة، من وجهة نظر الحكومة الفدرالية الانتقالية والمجتمع الدولي، مع حركة الشباب أكثر أهمية منه الآن حيث تعاني الحركة من سلسة انتكاسات عسكرية، بدا من خروجها من العاصمة مقدشو ومرورا من طرد الحركة من معاقلها القوية في البلاد، وهذا أمر مهم حيث ستتمكن الحكومة الصومالية ولأول مرة من التفاوض مع الحركة من موقف قوي.
من شأن المفاوضات التحسين من صورة الحكومة الفدرالية في أعين الجناج المعتدل في الحركة.
ومن شأن أي مفاوضات المساهمة في تحديد نقاط قوة اللاعبين الأساسيين في حركة الشباب. من المعروف أنه في حالة عرض الحكومة التفاوض فإن بعض القادة البارزين للحركة سينظرون في الأمر، بينما سيرقب البعض منهم في رفع أسمائهم من قوائم الإرهاب الأمريكية والأمم المتحدة، في حين سيحرص آخرون على إعادة الانخراط في المجتمع والسعي لعفو عام، كما سيطلب آخرون إعادة التوطين في بلد ثالث. كل هذه الحوافز تعتبر رخيصة في سبيل تحقيق السلام في بلد طحنته الحرب الأهلية منذ 1991. وعلى سبيل المقارنة تطرح كل هذه الحوافز على طاولة المفاوضات بالنسبة لحركة طالبان لذا نعتقد أن هذه الإستراتيجية ستكون ذات مردود أكبر لكون الوضع في الصومال أقل تعقيدا منه في أفغانستان.
آلية المفاوضات
يقول المثل الشهير: إن وجدت إرادة فستكون هناك وسيلة.. وتمر الترجمة الفعلية لهذا المبدأ كسياسات وإجراءات حقيقية على أرض الواقع بثلاث آليات.
أولا: لا بد من وجود دولة أو منظمة من خارج اللعبة للأخذ بزمام المبادرة وتمثل قطر وتركيا مرشحين طبيعيين للمساعدة في الأمر بسبب كون قطر قد عرفت إقليميا في حل النزاعات الداخلية واللعب فيها دور الوسيط في لبنان والسودان وفلسطين وغيرها وكون الثانية أي تركيا الوجه الإسلامي البارز حاليا في العالم الإسلامي وهذا الأمر يتطلب الحذر والكثير من بناء الثقة من الطرفين.
ثانيا: بدعم من المجتمع الدولي يجب على الحكومة الفيدرالية تشكيل لجنة وطنية للمصالحة تكون لها صلاحيات قانونية وسياسية ومالية؛ ويجب تعيين أشخاص معروفين بالنزاهة والمصداقية في هذه اللجنة وتمثل العلاقات التي تربط الكثير من مقربي الحكومة او حتى أعضائها -حاليا أو سابقا- برموز حركة الشباب فرصة كبيرة لإحراز تقدم في هذا الاتجاه.
ثالثا: يجب على المجتمع الدولي دعم هذه الجهود بشكل علني وقوي؛ لأنه حتى الآن تقول الحكومة إن دولا إقليمية تثنيها عن التفاوض مع الحركة لكون هذه الدول تعارض علنا فكرة إشراك الشباب في أي مسار سياسي؛ وهذا أمر سخيف باعتبار أن الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية نفسها تجري مفاوضات مع حركة طالبان برعاية قطرية. وحتى إثيوبيا، القوة المأثرة في المنطقة والجارة المعنية بالدور المستقبلي الذي قد يلعبه الإسلاميون في الحكومة، قد وقعت بدورها اتفاقية سلام مؤخرا مع جماعة إسلامية متمردة، فعلى واشنطتن وأديس أبابا ألا تعرقلا فكرة الحديث بين الحكومة الصومالية وبين خصمها اللدود: حركة الشباب المجاهدينوعلى الصومالين ان يعو اين تكمن مصلحتهم.
على الرغم من تفاؤلنا سيكون الحديث مع حركة الشباب بلا شك أمرا معقدا يتطلب كثيرا من بناء الثقةورأس مال سياسي ومالي كبير ونظرا للطبيعة المعقدة للحركة سيتطلب الدخول معها في محادثات مخططا دقيقا للعمل تعرف ماذا،, لماذا، أين، ومتى سيتم التعامل معهم..
بنية المجموعات المتفاوضة
استنادا إلى بعض المقابلات تتكون حركة الشباب من ثلاثة مستويات على شكل هرمي. على رأس هذا الهرم مجموعة صغيرة ولكنها قوية تسمى “مجلس القيادة”؛ وتسيطر هذه الزمرة على الموارد السياسية والمالية للمنظمة. ويتكون مجلس القيادة من القادة الصوماليين الانعزاليين إضافة لقادة “المجاهدين” وهم مجموعة من المقاتلين الأجانب يحملون جوازات سفر أجنبية وتعتبر هذه الدائرة العنصر الأكثر تطرفا إيديولوجيا في الحركة ويمتلك القوة الحقيقية. وتكمن السلطة الحقيقية وصلاحيات صنع القرار بيد أفراد قلة في هذه الدائرة.
يليهم في الهرم شبكة تسمى “قادة الميادين” والتي تتكون من عدة مئات من القادة الميدانيين المحليين المنتشرين جنوب ووسط الصومال ويعتبر هذا المكون بمثابة فرقة عمليات الحركة. ويعتبر الشباب الذين يقودون هذه المجموعة بمثابة العمود الفقري للمنظمة لكونهم يشرفون على تنفيذ كثير من القرارات السياسية التي تملى عليهم من طرف مجلس القيادة عادة عبر وسطاء.
وفي الواقع يعتبر هذا المكون أهم جسم في المنظمة، وبالإمكان اعتباره الطبقة الوسطى للمنظمة، وعل عكس أعضاء مجلس القيادة يتكون القادة الميدانيون في غالبهم من فئة الشباب فوق العشرين الذين تربوا في بلد ليس فيه أي قانون، وبعضهم إن لم يكن كلهم أفراد ميليشيات سابقين من أمراء الحرب الصوماليين سيئي السمعة. وهم ينظرون إلى المشاركة مع حركة الشباب كضرب من الفداء ولكن، الأهم من ذلك أنهم قد لا تتبنون بالضرورة الفكر المتطرف الذي ينتجه مجلس القيادة وفي حال إيجاد برنامج قوي يمكن وبنجاح كسب هؤلاء القادة الميدانيين للتفاوض.
وفي أسفل البنية الهرمية لحركة الشباب تأتي القاعدة القتالية العريضة والتي تشكل السواد الأعظم للمنظمة وتم القضاء على نحو مائتين من هؤلاء في شهر واحد من عام 2010 من طرف قوات بعثة الاتحاد إلافريقي والحكومة في الخطوط الأمامية للقتال في مقديشو مع ذلك فليس لهؤلاء المجموعة أي اطلاع على أية معلومة بمعنى أنهم ليسوا مصدر ثقة بالنسبة للحركة. ويقول بعض المنشقين الصغار إن انعدام الثقة مشترك وإذا أخذنا بعين الاعتبار هذا الأمر يمكن أيضا كسب هؤلاء في التفاوض من خلال برامج إعادة تأهيل وحوافز مادية أخرى.
بالمقارنة مع حركة الشباب تتكون الحكومة من بنى مختلفة حيث يوجد تقسيم للسلطة التنفيذية بين الرئيس ورئيس الوزراء (مجلس الوزراء). ومن المفترض أن يكون النظام نظاما برلمانيا يحظى فيه مجلس الوزراء بممارسة معظم الصلاحيات؛
رسم المجتمع الدولي “خارطة طريق”، وحاول فرضها على الأطراف الصومالية، وحدد المجتمع الدولي 45 مهمة يتوجب على القادة واللجان القيام بها، والمنتظر هو أن يقوم كل من الرئيس، ورئيس البرلمان، ورئيس الوزراء والمجموعات المحلية بتنفيذ هذه المهام. وسيشرف المكتب السياسي للأمم المتحدة حول الصومال على التنسيق ما بين هذه المجموعات؛ مما يجعل هذا المكتب الشريك الرئيسي في العملية.
وأي مصالحة حقيقية في الصومال يجب أن تكون شاملة؛ ولكن عندما يتعلق الأمر بالتفاوض مع حركة الشباب لا بد من إقناع القيادة التنفيذية للحكومة كي تكون شريكا حقيقيا في السلام. وحتى الآن لا تزال هذه القيادة مترددة في الحديث مع حركة الشباب بسبب ضغوط سياسية خارجية وكذا حسابات سياسية داخلية.
الخيارات المحفزة
ينبغي أن يكون الغرض من بدء حديث مع حركة الشباب جزءا من إستراتيجية شاملة لإنهاء الصراع في الصومال؛ ففي الوقت الحالي يخيب أمل الكثير من القادة الميدانيين وكذا قيادات من الصف الأول للتمرد مما يبدو أنها حرب بلا هدف ثابت، وبالتالي ترغب هذه القيادات في إيجاد طريق يخرجها من هذه الهوة، وعليه يجب تقديم حزمة حوافز شاملة تتألف من خمسة عناصر مصممة خصيصا لتلبية احتياجات المجموعات الثلاث المكونة للبنية الهرمية لحركة الشباب وهنا يمكن استلهام التجربة الأفغانية وتطبيقها في الصومال.
أولا: سيكون إصدار عفو عام ضروريا للعناصر التي تود الانخراط في المجتمع من جديد.
ثانيا: ستتم الحاجة إلى اللجوء لإعطاء حوافز مالية ووظيفية للمقاتلين الشباب الذين لم يتم ملء رؤوسهم بأفكار متطرفة.
وهاتان الخطوتان لهما أهمية خاصة بالنسبة للقادة الميدانيين والمقاتلين الشباب. أما الحوافز المتبقية فينبغي ثالثا أن تركز على القيادات العليا للمنظمة. كما ينبغي رابعا الاستجابة للذين يرغبون في الانضمام للحكومة الصومالية في مراكز عليا مع الضغط على الأمم المتحدة والولايات المتحدة لرفع بعض الأسماء من قوائم الإرهاب الخاصة بهما وهذا ما سيغري بعض الشخصيات الرفيعة المستوى في الحركة. وخامسا: ستتقبل بعض الشخصيات في حركة الشباب فكرة اللجوء في بلد إسلامي آخر وهناك عدة دول يمكنها المساعدة في هذا الأمر.
لوجستيا، وإضافة إلى إيجاد وسيط نزيه يحظى بثقة جميع الإطراف، سيكون إشراك علماء الدين، وشيوخ العشائر وكذا الأعضاء والقادة السابقون لاتحاد المحاكم الإسلامية أمرا مفيدا في تسهيل المفاوضات على النطاقين الضيق والأوسع.
التحديات
أعتقد أن الجلوس إلى طاولة المفاوضات مع حركة الشباب ليس أمرا صحيحا فسحب بل هو أمر ضروري لوضع حد لفترة عشرين عاما من حالة عدم الاستقرار التي يمر بها الصومال؛ لكننا ندرك مدى صعوبة وتعقيد هذه المهمة التي تنتظرها الكثير من العقبات مستقبلا. ويمكن اعتبار النقاط التالية أهم تحديين في هذا الصدد:
أولا: يتوقف نجاح أو فشل هذه المبادرة على دعم المجتمع الدولي، وعلى دعم الدول الإقليمية كإثيوبيا وكينيا والقوى الأخرى خصوصا الولايات المتحدة تشجيع الحكومة للدخول في المفاوضات بحسن نية. علاوة على ذلك يشكل التواجد المستمر لقوات الأميصوم داخل الصومال عقبة كبيرة في سبيل إنهاء الصراع فبالإضافة لاحتلالها لبعض المناطق الصومالية تعارض الحكومة الإثيوبية علنا أي محادثات مع حركة الشباب مما يمكن الانتهازيين في الحكومة استخدام هذا الرفض كذريعة للمطالبة في قبول المحادثات. لهذا أعتقد أن مشاركة المجتمع الدولي ستشكل ضغطا على أديس أبابا للتراجع عن موقفها.
ثانيا: كأي مجموعة متطرفة سيرفض بعض قادة الشباب المحادثات، ويستخدمون طرقا عنيفة لإيقافها وهذه وسيلة قاتلة تستخدمها الحركة؛ خصوصا أن الحكومة الحالية غير قادرة على حماية العناصر المعتدلة من الحركة والتي تريد الالتحاق بالمحادثات. ومؤخرا تم قتل بعض القادة الذين تخلوا عن الحركة في مقديشو بينما بقي الذين نجوا من القتل مختبئين في مناطق متعددة من العاصمة لخشيتهم على حياتهم. وتكمن أحسن وسيلة لمواجهة هذا التحدي في خلق بيئة آمنة في المناطق التي تقع تحت سيطرة الحكومة.
في بداية فبراير/ شباط 2012 أعلن تنظيم القاعدة بصفة رسمية انضمام حركة الشباب للتنظيم وعلى الرغم من كون حركة الشباب قد أعلنت ولاءها للتنظيم منذ حوالي السنتين، ويمكن اعتبار هذا الإعلان بمثابة محاولة لإضعاف الجناح الوطني في حركة الشباب، كما يمكن أيضا أن يكون محاولة لمنع أية فرصة للمصالحة بين الشباب والحكومة. من ناحية أخرى يمكن أن يساهم في بلورة التوتر المتصاعد بين القادة البارزين في حركة الشباب.
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صهيب عبدالرحمن شخص يستحق الشكر والتأييد قدوة الجيل الناشئ حياك الله ياخي أطال الله عمرك وحسن الله عملك